At a glance
Assured Guaranty Ltd is worth $3.05B, about 7 times its fiscal 2025 earnings. Revenue grew 27.3% to $1.11B in fiscal 2025, with 45.3% kept as profit; over 5 years it has grown 0.1% a year. It pays a 2.14% dividend yield, raised every year for at least 9 years, and returned $2.53B to shareholders in dividends and buybacks over FY2021–FY2025. The stock returned −13.1% over the past year with dividends reinvested and +6.2% a year over five years, against +11.5% and +11.7% for the S&P 500. At its worst it fell 58.0% in the 2020 crash (S&P 500: 33.7%) and 28.4% in the 2022 bear market (S&P 500: 24.5%), and was back at its earlier high 11 months and 2 months after the lows.
The business in plain English
Assured Guaranty is a Bermuda-based holding company whose core business is financial guaranty insurance. When a state, city, utility, hospital or infrastructure project issues bonds, the company can guarantee that bondholders receive scheduled interest and principal. If the borrower misses a payment, Assured Guaranty pays the shortfall on the original schedule. It generally cannot be forced to repay the whole debt early.
It sells this protection to bond issuers and underwriters, and to investors. For issuers, the premium can cost less than the interest the guarantee saves them. Investors get more certainty of payment, and insured bonds are often easier to sell. Most of the debt it guarantees is issued in the U.S. and the U.K., with some in Western Europe and Australia. The insured debt includes U.S. municipal bonds (general obligation, tax-backed, utility, transportation and healthcare bonds), U.K. utilities and infrastructure, Spanish renewable energy and structured finance, which means debt backed by pools of loans or other assets.
It also owns a noncontrolling stake in the asset manager Sound Point Capital Management. On January 21, 2026, it paid $158 million for the parent of Assured Life Re, a Bermuda reinsurer (an insurer for other insurers). Assured Life Re focuses on U.K. pension risk transfers and U.S. multi-year guaranteed annuities. The 10-K does not cleanly split revenue by segment or region. Total revenue was $1.11 billion in 2025, and net income was $503 million.
Price history
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AGO -13.1% over the year to Oct 28, 2026, total return with dividends reinvested.
Latest results
- In Q2 FY2026 (ended Jun 30, 2026), revenue was $195.0M, down 30.6% from a year earlier, and net income was $39.0M (-62.1%).
- For fiscal 2025, revenue was $1.11B (+27.3% year over year; -0.1% a year from FY2020 to FY2025) with a 45.3% net margin.
Financial health check
| Revenue growth a year (FY2020–FY2025) | -0.1% weak |
|---|---|
| Return on equity (FY2025) | 8.9% watch |
| Return on assets (FY2025) | 4.1% watch |
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Net income | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | $1.11B | $362.0M | — |
| FY2021 | $848.0M | $389.0M | — |
| FY2022 | $723.0M | $124.0M | — |
| FY2023 | $1.37B | $739.0M | — |
| FY2024 | $872.0M | $376.0M | — |
| FY2025 | $1.11B | $503.0M | — |
Valuation snapshot
| Market value | $3.05B |
|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 6.8 |
| Dividend yield | 2.14% |
Rank among 1514 US companies
Market value at each year end
Assured Guaranty Ltd’s market value went from $4.92B at the end of 2016 to $3.05B on Oct 28, 2026, down 38%; since the end of 2025 it is down 26%.
Show as a table
| Year end | Market value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | $3.05B | -26.4% |
| 2025 | $4.14B | -9.6% |
| 2024 | $4.58B | +6.9% |
| 2023 | $4.28B | +14.7% |
| 2022 | $3.74B | +6.5% |
| 2021 | $3.51B | +37.8% |
| 2020 | $2.54B | -45.6% |
| 2019 | $4.68B | +15.6% |
| 2018 | $4.04B | +1.7% |
| 2017 | $3.98B | -19.2% |
| 2016 | $4.92B |
Price behavior
| YTD | 1 yr | 3 yr | 5 yr | 10 yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO price data to Oct 28, 2026 | -21.7% | -13.1% | +6.5% | +6.2% | +10.8% |
Show as a table
| Year | Price data |
|---|---|
| 2026 (to date) | -21.7% |
| 2025 | +1.4% |
| 2024 | +22.1% |
| 2023 | +22.5% |
| 2022 | +26.2% |
| 2021 | +62.4% |
| 2020 | -33.9% |
| 2019 | +30.1% |
| 2018 | +15.0% |
| 2017 | -9.1% |
| 2016 | +45.6% |
| 2015 | +3.5% |
| 2014 | +12.2% |
| 2013 | +68.8% |
| 2012 | +11.2% |
| 2011 | -24.7% |
| 2010 | -17.7% |
| 2009 | +94.0% |
| 2008 | -56.4% |
| 2007 | +0.4% |
| 2006 | +5.4% |
| 2008 financial crisis stocks fell Oct 9, 2007 – Mar 9, 2009 | Lost 89.6% over that stretch · deepest drop along the way 89.6%, back to its old high 59.9 months after the low |
|---|---|
| 2020 COVID crash stocks fell Feb 19, 2020 – Mar 23, 2020 | Lost 57.8% over that stretch · deepest drop along the way 58%, back to its old high 11.3 months after the low |
| 2022 bear market stocks fell Jan 3, 2022 – Oct 12, 2022 | Gained 5.1% over that stretch · deepest drop along the way 28.4%, back to its old high 2.1 months after the low |
Insider activity
Form 4 filings from 2025-10-29 to 2026-10-29 (23 read): 0 open-market purchases and 4 sales ($13.9M).
| Date | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Francisco L Borges Director | sell | $9.9M |
| May 11, 2026 | Robert Bailenson Chief Operating Officer | sell | $2.6M |
| May 11, 2026 | Robert Bailenson Chief Operating Officer | sell | $1.4M |
| May 29, 2026 | Lorin Radtke Director | sell | $78K |
Who owns it
Large shareholders (13G filings)
| BlackRock, Inc. | 11% | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | 8.81% | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 5.12% | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Wellington Management Group LLP | 1.3% | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Franklin Resources, Inc. | 1% | Sep 30, 2024 |
ETFs with the most weight in AGO
| SIXS ETC 6 Meridian Small Cap Equity ETF | 2.27% |
| PSCF Invesco S&P SmallCap Financials ETF | 1.22% |
| XSVM Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF | 1.17% |
| SMDX Intech S&P Small-Mid Cap Diversified Alpha ETF | 1.16% |
| GRPZ Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 GARP ETF | 0.93% |
| SDVD FT Vest SMID Rising Dividend Achievers Target Income ETF | 0.89% |
| SDVY First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF | 0.88% |
| XSLV Invesco S&P SmallCap Low Volatility ETF | 0.79% |
What could go wrong
- Insured borrowers could default more than expected. Every missed payment on an insured bond becomes a claim. If defaults exceed estimates or recoveries fall short, losses rise. One large exposure, or many related ones failing together, could do outsized damage.
- Strained state and local government budgets. Some public borrowers it insures face, or may face, budget deficits, pension and revenue shortfalls, and trouble raising new money. That could bring more claims and higher capital charges from rating agencies.
- A credit-rating downgrade could hurt new business. Insured bonds carry the rating of the Assured Guaranty subsidiary that guarantees them. If any insurance subsidiary's financial strength rating were cut, its guarantee could become less valuable to issuers and investors.
- Narrow credit spreads shrink demand. A credit spread is the extra yield riskier borrowers pay. When spreads are narrow, a guarantee saves issuers little interest, so fewer buy one. Narrow spreads can also reduce demand for annuity reinsurance.
- New life and annuity reinsurance risks. The Assured Life Re purchase adds a business priced on guesses about how long people live, policy surrenders and investment returns. Integration problems, wrong guesses or asset-liability mismatches could cause losses.
- Sound Point stake and alternative investments. The company has a noncontrolling stake in Sound Point and an exclusivity arrangement to place investments with it. It does not control Sound Point, and these alternative investments add credit, interest rate and liquidity risk.
Recent events
- Investor presentation or announcement
- Quarterly results released
- Investor presentation or announcement
- Quarterly results released
- Shareholder vote results
- Quarterly results released
- Executive or board change
- Quarterly results released; Investor presentation or announcement
- Quarterly results released
- Major agreement signed; Investor presentation or announcement
For income and retirement investors
Assured Guaranty has raised its regular dividend at least nine years in a row through 2025. Dividends per share rose from $0.80 in 2020 to $1.36 in 2025, about 11.2% a year. Even so, the payout used only 13.5% of 2025 earnings. The yield was 2.14% as of October 28, 2026. Buybacks are the bigger story. From 2021 through 2025, the company spent about $2.2 billion buying back shares, compared with $333 million on dividends. The share count fell 37% between November 2021 and August 2026. Insurance regulations can restrict both dividends and buybacks.
The stock has fallen hard in crises. It lost 89.6% between October 2007 and March 2009 and did not regain its earlier peak until March 2014. It dropped 58% in the 2020 COVID crash and recovered in about 11 months. It fell 28.4% between April and September 2022, then recovered by late November. As a single stock, AGO carries more risk than a diversified fund.
Questions investors ask
How does Assured Guaranty make money?
Mainly by selling financial guaranty insurance. Bond issuers, underwriters and investors pay premiums for its promise to cover scheduled interest and principal if a borrower defaults. The guarantee can lower an issuer's borrowing costs and make bonds easier to sell. The company also has investment income, a noncontrolling stake in the asset manager Sound Point and, since January 2026, life and annuity reinsurance through Assured Life Re. Revenue was $1.11 billion in 2025.
Does Assured Guaranty raise its dividend every year?
Yes, so far. It has raised its regular dividend at least nine years in a row through fiscal 2025, and the streak may be longer. Dividends per share climbed from $0.80 in 2020 to $1.36 in 2025, about 11.2% a year. The dividend is small compared with profits, about 13.5% of 2025 earnings. The yield was 2.14% as of October 28, 2026. Insurance regulations can restrict dividend payments.
How did Assured Guaranty stock do in the 2008 financial crisis?
Very badly. The share price fell 89.6% from its peak on October 12, 2007, to March 9, 2009. It did not recover until March 5, 2014, about five years later. A company that guarantees debt is exposed when credit markets seize up. In later sell-offs, it fell 58% in the 2020 COVID crash and recovered in about 11 months. It fell 28.4% in 2022 and recovered within about two months.
What is Assured Guaranty's P/E ratio?
About 6.8 as of October 28, 2026, based on the share price on that date and diluted earnings of $10.26 per share for 2025. That figure can mislead because earnings swing widely. Diluted earnings per share were $1.92 in 2022, $12.30 in 2023 and $6.87 in 2024. Profit also fell in the latest reported quarter: net income for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, was down 62.1% from a year earlier.
Are there tax issues with owning Assured Guaranty stock?
Possibly. Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based holding company, and its 10-K lists several tax risks for U.S. shareholders. U.S. holders may owe tax at ordinary income rates on their share of certain insurance income. Tax-exempt holders, which can include retirement accounts, may fall under unrelated business taxable income rules. Holders would also face adverse treatment if the company were ever deemed a passive foreign investment company. Anyone owning 10% or more faces separate controlled foreign corporation rules.