VanEck Long/Flat Trend ETF

VanEck Long/Flat Trend ETF (LFEQ) tracks the Ned Davis Research CMG US Large Cap Long/Flat Index, which holds the S&P 500, Treasury bills or a 50/50 mix based on daily signals. As of June 30, 2026, 99.7% of assets sat in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. Built to sidestep weak markets, it fell 35.2% in the 2020 crash and trailed the S&P 500 over five years: 10.85% vs. 14.42% a year to Dec. 31, 2025.

• Over the year to Oct 27, 2026, LFEQ returned +13.0%, 1st of 8 among similar funds.
• Its 5-year annualized return was +8.8%.
• In the 2020 COVID crash it fell 35.2% and regained its old high 4.7 months after the low.
• Its worst full calendar year was 2022 (-22.0%); its best was 2021 (+28.0%).
• The deepest fall in its price history was 35.2% (Feb 19, 2020 to Mar 23, 2020), recovered by Aug 12, 2020.

As of Jun 30, 2026, the fund held 1 securities; the ten largest made up 99.66% of assets.

• Over the three months to Jun 30, 2026, investors withdrew a net $1.5M (creations minus redemptions, per the N-PORT report).
• Monthly total returns reported for that quarter: +10.48%, +5.23%, -1.01%.

LFEQ is an index fund, but its index, the Ned Davis Research CMG US Large Cap Long/Flat Index, works like a market-timing model. Ned Davis Research built it with CMG Capital Management Group. Each day it scores the S&P 500's industry groups on three kinds of price signals: trend-following (which way prices are heading), volatility (whether short-term swings have jumped versus longer-term ones) and mean reversion (the idea that prices drift back toward their average). These roll up into a 0-to-100 “market breadth” score of how many industries are rising or falling.

That score sets one of three positions: fully in the S&P 500 (“long”), fully in 13-week U.S. Treasury bills tracked by the Solactive 13-week U.S. T-bill Index (“flat”), or half in each. Signals update daily, so the fund can switch mid-month, while the two underlying indexes rebalance quarterly. The prospectus reports 91% portfolio turnover, which can raise trading costs and taxable gains.

Rather than buy all 500 stocks, the fund holds S&P 500 ETFs until VanEck judges it big enough to own the stocks directly. As of June 30, 2026, its only holding was Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, at 99.7% of assets, so holders indirectly bear that fund's expenses too. It is passive: it follows the signals and takes no defensive steps of its own.

• LFEQ charges 0.58% a year, versus an average of 0.86% for the similar funds below (1st of 8, cheapest first).
• Of that, 0.5% is the management fee; the rest covers other fund expenses.
• The fee includes a 0.25% waiver from the adviser, which may end.
• Using the prospectus's standard example, $10,000 invested would cost about $59 in the first year and $1,002 over 10 years (assuming a 5% annual return).

It carries stock-market risk plus the risk that its timing signals misfire, so it fits better as one slice of a stock allocation than as the main holding.

LFEQ aims to cut stock exposure in weak markets, a goal that matters to anyone who may need to sell in a downturn. Launched in 2017, it has no 2008 history. In the 2020 COVID crash it fell 35.2% from Feb. 19 to March 23, 2020, showing trend signals can lag sudden drops; it recovered 4.7 months later. In the 2022 bear market it fell 25.5% and took 16.6 months from its low to recover. Its worst calendar year was 2022, down 22%. Withdrawals then meant selling well below the peak.

Income is minor: a 0.8% trailing 12-month yield as of Oct. 27, 2026, paid once a year. Costs are 0.58% a year after a fee waiver, or $1,002 over 10 years on $10,000 in the SEC's standard example. Past results don't predict the future, and a plan needs to look at the whole portfolio, not one fund.

Matched by other buffer (defined-outcome) funds, largest first.